AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Australian Dollar Declines Under 200-Day SMA Amid Rising US Yields and Election Uncertainty
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook: AUD Falls Below 200-Day SMA on Rising US Yields, Election Jitters
Source: Forex Factory
Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators
- This week is expected to be relatively quiet until midweek, with minimal impactful news in the calendar.
- Traders are advised to monitor election-related headlines, which are influencing market sentiment and may affect the AUD/USD currency pair.
Key Economic Calendar Events
- Following a slow start, the economic calendar heats up Wednesday.
- The trimmed mean inflation figure is highlighted as a crucial indicator to watch, but may not significantly influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decisions.
- Current trimmed mean inflation at 0.8% q/q is one of the lowest readings in the last three years, only slightly below the 0.88% benchmark.
Political Influences
- The upcoming RBA decision is complicated by political factors; public dissatisfaction with the Albanese Labor government is growing.
- Recent election losses for the Labor party in Queensland signal potential voter backlash against immigration policies affecting housing affordability.
Technical Analysis
- Technical analysis shows noteworthy levels of Fibonacci retracement and support/resistance in current market conditions.
Conclusion
In summary, the AUD/USD outlook suggests a complex interplay of rising US yields, political climate impacts, and critical upcoming economic data will shape market movements in the near term.
